1.1 --- a/thesis/tex/3-MarketAnalysis.tex	Wed Nov 26 22:01:33 2008 +0100
     1.2 +++ b/thesis/tex/3-MarketAnalysis.tex	Wed Nov 26 22:02:55 2008 +0100
     1.3 @@ -1,15 +1,15 @@
     1.4  \chapter{Market analysis}
     1.5  \label{chap:market-analysis}
     1.6  
     1.7 -This chapter analyses the current situation and future trends, for electronic communication in general and email in particular. First electronic mail's position within other electronic communication technologies is located. Then trends for the whole field of electronic communication are shown. Afterwards opportunities and threats in the market for email are located and the trends for email are shown. The insights of these analysis result in a summary of things that are important for developing future-prove email software.
     1.8 +This chapter analyses the current situation and future trends, for electronic communication in general and email in particular. First electronic mail's position within other electronic communication technologies is located. Then trends for the whole field of electronic communication are shown. Afterwards opportunities and threats in the market are located and trends for email are figured out. The insights of these analysis result in a summary of things that are important for developing future-prove email software.
     1.9  
    1.10  
    1.11  
    1.12  \section{Electronic communication technologies}
    1.13  
    1.14 -Electronic communication is communication that is based on electronic data exchange, no physical contact is needed and no physical transport needs to be done for it. Additional, electronic communication is fast in general. With having no other needs besides the electronic infrastructure, electronic communication provides cheap communication. As underlying transport infrastructure, mostly the Internet is used; this makes it available nearly everywhere around the world. These properties---fast, cheap, everywhere---make electronic communication well suited for long distance communication.
    1.15 +Electronic communication is ``communication by computer'', according to the \name{WordNet} database of \name{Princeton University} \citeweb{wordnet}. Mobile phones and telefax machines should be seen as computers here too. The \name{Science Glossary} of the \name{Pennsylvania Department of Education} describes electronic communication as ``System for the transmission of information using electronic technology (e.g., digital cameras, cellular telephones, Internet, television, fiber optics).'' \citeweb{science-glossary-pa}.
    1.16  
    1.17 -%todo: clarify: electronic communication vs. digital communication
    1.18 +Electronic communication needs no transport of tangible things, only electrons, photons, or radio waves need to be transmitted. Thus electronic communication is fast in general. With having costs mainly for infrastructure and very low costs for data transmission, electronic communication is also cheap communication. As underlying transport infrastructure, mostly the Internet is used; this makes it available nearly everywhere around the world. These properties---fast, cheap, everywhere---make electronic communication well suited for long distance communication.
    1.19  
    1.20  As globalization proceeds and long distance communication becomes more and more important. The future of electronic communication is bright.
    1.21  
    1.22 @@ -17,9 +17,11 @@
    1.23  
    1.24  
    1.25  \subsection{Classification}
    1.26 -Types of electronic communication can be divided in written and recorded information. Recorded information, like audio or video data, is accessable only in a linear way by spooling and replay. Written information, on the other hand, can be accessed in arbitary sequence, detail and speed.
    1.27 +Types of electronic communication can be divided in synchron and asynchron communication. Syncron communication are direct dialogs with little delay. Telephone conversation is an example. Asynchron communication are one-way message systems. Dialogs are possible as well, but not in the same direct fashion. These two groups can also be split by the time needed for data delivery. Synchron communication requires nearly real-time delivery, whereas message delivery times of several seconds or even minutes are sufficent for asynchron communication.
    1.28  
    1.29 -Another possible separation is to distinguished synchron and asynchron communication. Syncron communication are direct dialogs with little delay. Telephone conversation is an example. Asynchron communication are one-way message systems; of course, dialogs are possible here as well, but not in the same direct fashion. These two groups can also be split by the time of data delivery. Synchron communication requires nearly real-time delivery, while for asynchron communication message delivery times of several seconds or even minutes are sufficent.
    1.30 +Another possible separation is to distinguished written and recorded information. Recorded information, like audio or video data, is accessable only in a linear way by spooling and replay. Written information, on the other hand, can be accessed in arbitary sequence, detail and speed.
    1.31 +
    1.32 +%fixme: add ref to Lenke & Schmitz here
    1.33  
    1.34  Figure \ref{fig:comm-classification} shows a classification of communication technologies sorted by these two criteria. Email and \NAME{SMS} are written and asynchron communication; \NAME{IM} and chats are written information too, but synchron. Recorded information are voicemail and video messages as examples for asynchron communication. VoIP is an example for synchron communication.
    1.35  
    1.36 @@ -46,24 +48,6 @@
    1.37  %             |                  |                  |
    1.38  %             | written          | recorded         |
    1.39  %             |                  |                  |
    1.40 -
    1.41 -
    1.42 -
    1.43 -% ---------------------------------------------------
    1.44 -%             |                  |                  |
    1.45 -% messages    |  email  SMS      | (makes no sense) |
    1.46 -% asynchron   |  video messages  |                  |
    1.47 -%             |  voicemail       |                  |
    1.48 -%             |                  |                  |
    1.49 -% ---------------------------------------------------
    1.50 -%             |                  |                  |
    1.51 -% dialog      |  IM              | VoIP             |
    1.52 -% synchron    |  chat            | video conference |
    1.53 -%             |                  |                  |
    1.54 -% ---------------------------------------------------
    1.55 -%             |                  |                  |
    1.56 -%             | files            | streams          |
    1.57 -%             |                  |                  |
    1.58  %\end{verbatim}
    1.59  %	\end{center}
    1.60  %	\caption{Classification of electronic communication}
    1.61 @@ -101,14 +85,14 @@
    1.62  
    1.63  The current position on the life cycle of the introduced communication technologies is depicted in figure \ref{fig:comm-lifecycle}. It is important to notice that there is no time line matching for all of them---some life cycles are shorter than others---the shape of the graph, however, is the same.
    1.64  
    1.65 -Video messages and voicemail are technologies in the introduction phase. Voice over \NAME{IP} is heavily growing these days. Instant Messaging has reached maturation, but still growing. Email is an example for a technology in the saturation phase. Declining does none of the above mentioned; telefaxes would be an example for a declining technology.
    1.66 +Video messages and voicemail are technologies in the introduction phase. Voice over \NAME{IP} is heavily growing these days. Instant Messaging has reached maturation, but still growing. Email is an example for a technology in the saturation phase. Declining does none of the above mentioned; telefax is an example for a declining technology.
    1.67  
    1.68  \begin{figure}
    1.69  	\begin{center}
    1.70  		\begin{verbatim}
    1.71  |            |             |          |    *******  |          |
    1.72 -|            |             |          |*#**       **|          |
    1.73 -|            |             |      ***** email       ******     |
    1.74 +|            |             |          |*#**       **|  telefax |
    1.75 +|            |             |      ***** email       ***#**     |
    1.76  |            |             |    **    |             |     *****|
    1.77  |            |             |*#**      |             |          |
    1.78  |            |           *** IM       |             |          |
    1.79 @@ -132,7 +116,7 @@
    1.80  
    1.81  Email ranges in the saturation phase, which is defined by a saturated market, no more products are needed, there is no more growth. This means, email is a technology used by everyone who want to use it. It is a standard technology. The current form of email in the current market is on the top of its life cycle. The future is decline, sooner or later.
    1.82  
    1.83 -But life cycles positions change as the subject or the market changes. An examples is the \name{Flash} animation software. The product's change from a drawing and animation system to a technology for website building, advertising, and movie distribution, and the then changing target market, made it slip back on the life cycle. If the email system would evolve to become the basis for Unified Messaging, a similar slip back would be the consequence. An example for a changing market are the \NAME{DVD} standards \NAME{DVD+} and \NAME{DVD-}. With the upcoming next generation formats BlueRay and \NAME{HD-DVD}, a much sooner decline of \NAME{DVD+} and \NAME{DVD-} started, even before reaching their last development steps in storage size. Such can happen to email too, if Unified Messaging is a revolution to the email system instead of an evolution.
    1.84 +But life cycles positions change as the subject or the market changes. An examples is the \name{Flash} animation software. The product's change from a drawing and animation system to a technology for website building, advertising, and movie distribution, and the then changing target market, made it slip back on the life cycle. If the email system would evolve to become the basis for Unified Messaging (see section \ref{sec:unified-messaging}), a similar slip back would be the consequence. An example for a changing market are the \NAME{DVD} standards \NAME{DVD+} and \NAME{DVD-}. With the upcoming next generation formats BlueRay and \NAME{HD-DVD}, a much sooner decline of \NAME{DVD+} and \NAME{DVD-} started, even before reaching their last development steps in storage size. Such can happen to email too, if Unified Messaging is a revolution to the email system instead of an evolution.
    1.85  
    1.86  
    1.87  
    1.88 @@ -148,46 +132,62 @@
    1.89  
    1.90  
    1.91  \subsubsection*{Integration}
    1.92 -Integration of communication technologies becomes popular. This goes beyond consolidation, because communication technologies of different kinds are bundled together to make communication more convenient for human. User interfaces tend to this direction. The underlying technologies will get grouped, but it seems as if synchron and asynchron communication can not be joined together in a sane way, so they will probably only be fusioned at the surface.
    1.93 +Integration of communication technologies becomes popular. This goes beyond consolidation, because communication technologies of different kinds are bundled together to make communication more convenient for human. User interfaces tend to this direction. The underlying technologies will get grouped, but it seems as if synchron and asynchron communication can not be joined together in a sane way, so they will probably only merge at the surface.
    1.94  
    1.95  
    1.96  
    1.97  \subsubsection*{Communication hardware}
    1.98  Hardware needed for communicating comes from two different roots: On the one side, the telephone, now available as mobile phones. This group centers around recorded data and dialog, but messages are supported by the answering machine and \NAME{SMS}. On the other side, mail and its relatives like email, using computers as main hardware. They center around document messages, support dialog communication in Instant Messaging and Voice over \NAME{IP}.
    1.99  
   1.100 -The last years finally brought the two groups together, with \name{smart phones} being the merging hardware element. Smart phones are computers in the size of mobile phones, or mobile phones with the capabilities of computers. They provide both functions, being telephones and computers.
   1.101 +The last years finally brought the two groups together, with \name{smart phones} being the merging hardware element. Smart phones are computers in the size of mobile phones or mobile phones with the capabilities of computers, however one likes to see it. They provide both functions, being telephones and computers.
   1.102  
   1.103 -Smart Phones match well the requirements of recorded data, for which it was designed of course. Writing text is not good to do with the minimal keyboards available for smart phones; speech to text converters may provide help in future. This leaves us with the need for ordinary computers for the field of exchanging documents and as better input hardware for all written input.
   1.104 +Smart Phones match well the requirements of recorded data, for which they were designed. Writing text is not good to do with the minimal keyboards available for smart phones; speech to text converters may provide help in future. This leaves us with the need for ordinary computers for the field of exchanging documents and as better input hardware for all written information.
   1.105  
   1.106  It seems as if a combination of computers and smart phones will be the hardware used for communication in future. Both specialized to the best matching communication technologies, but supporting the others too. Hence facilities for transfering information off and onto the devices will be needed.
   1.107  
   1.108  
   1.109  
   1.110 +\subsubsection*{Unified Communication}
   1.111 +\name{Unified communication} is the technology aiming to consolidate and integrate all electronic communication and providing access for all kinds of hardware clients. Unified communication tries to bring the tree trends here mentioned together. The \name{PC Magazine} has the following definition in its Encyclopedia \citeweb{pcmag:uc}: ``[Unified communications is] The real-time redirection of a voice, text or e-mail message to the device closest to the intended recipient at any given time.'' The main goal is to integrate all kinds of communication (asynchronous and synchronous) into one system, hence this requires real-time delivery of data.
   1.112 +
   1.113 +According to Michael Osterman \citeweb{howto-def-uc}, unified communications is already possible as far as various incoming sources are routed to one storage where messages can be accessed by one or a few clients. But a system with an ``intelligent parser of a single data stream into separate streams that are designed to meet the real-time needs of the user'' is a goal for the future, he says.
   1.114 +
   1.115 +The question is, if the integration of synchronous and asynchronous message transfer does make sense. A communication between one person talking on the phone and the other replying using his instant messenger, certainly does, if the text-to-speech and speech-to-text convertion is fast and the quality good enough. But transfering large video messages and real-time communication data with the same technology, possibly does not.
   1.116 +
   1.117 +
   1.118 +
   1.119 +\subsubsection*{Unified Messaging}
   1.120 +\label{sec:unified-messaging}
   1.121 +\name{Unified messaging}, although often used exchangeable with unified communications, is only a subset of it. It does not require real-time data transmission and is therefor only usable for asynchronous communication \citeweb{wikipedia:uc}. Unified messaging's function is basically: Receiveing incoming messages from various channels, converting it to a common format, and storeing it into a single space. The stored messages can then be accessed from different devices. \citeweb{wikipedia:um}
   1.122 +
   1.123 +The easiest way of unified messaging is to base it on either email and convert all input sources to email messages (as attachments for instance) and store them in the user's mail box. Or use the telephone system as basis and convert text messages to speech. Both is no problem for asynchronous communication.
   1.124 +
   1.125 +Finally a critical voice from Jesse Freund, who voted unified messaging on top of a hype list for \name{Wired.com}, ten years ago \cite{wired:hype}. His description of the technology ended with the humorous sentences: ``Unified messaging is a nice idea, but a tough sell: The reason you bought a cell phone, a pager, and a fax/modem is because each does its job well. No one wants to download voicemail as a series of RealAudio messages or sit through a voicemail bot spelling out email, complete with "semicolon dash end-parenthesis" for ;-).''
   1.126 +
   1.127 +
   1.128 +%todo: have a result here?
   1.129  
   1.130  
   1.131  
   1.132  
   1.133  \section{Electronic mail}
   1.134  
   1.135 -After viewing the whole market of electronic communication, a zoom in to the market of electronic mail follows. Email is an asynchron communication technology that transports textual information primary. This thesis is about a \mta, so the market situation for email is important. Interesting questions are: Is email future-safe? How will email change? Will it change at all? Which are the critical parts? These questions matter when deciding on the directions for further development of an \MTA.
   1.136 -
   1.137 -
   1.138 -
   1.139 -\subsection{Is email future-safe?}
   1.140 -It seems as if electronic mail or a similar technology has good chances to survive the next decades. This bases on the assumption that it always will be important to send information messages. These can be notes from other people, or notifications from systems (like a broken or full hard drive in the home server, or the coffee machine ran out of coffee beans). Other communication technologies are not as suitable for this kind of messages, as email, short message service, voice mail, and the like. Telephone talks are more focused on dialog and normally interrupt people. These kind of messages should not interrupt people, unless urgent, and they do not need two-way information exchange. The second argument appies to instant messaging too. If only one message is to be send, one does not need instant messaging. Thus, one type of one-way message sending technology will survive.
   1.141 -
   1.142 -Whether email will be the one surviving, or short message service, or another one, does not matter. Probably it will be \name{unified messaging}, which includes all of the other ones in it, anyway. \MTA{}s are a kind of software needed for all of these messaging methods---programs that transfer and receive messages.
   1.143 -
   1.144 +After viewing the whole market of electronic communication, a zoom in to the market of electronic mail follows. Email is an asynchron communication technology that transports textual information primary. This thesis is about a \mta, so the market situation for email is important. Interesting questions are: Is email future-safe? How will electronic mail change? Will it change at all? Which are the critical parts? These questions matter when deciding on the directions for further development of an \MTA. They are discussed in this section.
   1.145  
   1.146  
   1.147  
   1.148  \subsection{\NAME{SWOT} analysis}
   1.149  
   1.150 -A \NAME{SWOT} analysis regards the strengths and weaknesses of a subject against the opportunities and threats of its market. The background for the analysis is the goal to reach with the subject. In this case, the main goal is to make email future-safe.
   1.151 +A \NAME{SWOT} analysis regards the strengths and weaknesses of a subject against the opportunities and threats of its market. The slightly altered form called Dialectical SWOT analysis, which is used here, is described in \cite{powerof2x2}. SWOT analysises should always focus on a specific specific goal to reach with the product. In this case, the main goal is to make email future-safe.
   1.152  
   1.153 -The market's main threat is \emph{spam email}, also named \name{junk email} or \name{unsolicited commercial email} (\NAME{UCE}). Spam mail is also a weakness of the email system, because it can not prevent it.
   1.154 +The market's main threat is \emph{spam}, also named \name{junk mail} or \name{unsolicited commercial email} (\NAME{UCE}). Panda Security and Commtouch state in their \name{Email Threats Trend Report} for the second Quater of 2008: ``Spam levels throughout the second quarter averaged 77\%, ranging from a low of 64\% to a peak of 94\% of all email [...]''\cite[page 4]{panda:email-threats}. The report sees the main reason in the botnets consisting of zombie computers: ``Spam and malware levels remain high for yet another quarter, powered by the brawny yet agile networks of zombie IPs.''\cite[page 1]{panda:email-threats} This is supported by IronPort Systems: ``More than 80 percent of spam now comes from a `zombie'---an infected PC, typically in a consumer broadband network, that has been hijacked by spammers.''\cite{ironport:zombie-computers}. Positiv for MTAs is, that they are not the main source for spam, but it is only a small delight. Spam is a general weakness of the email system, because it can not prevent it.
   1.155  
   1.156 -Opportunities of the market are large data transfers, coming from multimedia content. Email is weak related to that kind of data: the data needs to be encoded to \NAME{ASCII} and and stresses mail servers a lot. The use of various hardware to access mail is another opportunity of the market. The software and infrastructure needed to transfer mail within this network might be a weakness of the email system. An opportunity of the market that is a strength of electronic mail is its standardization. Few other communication technologies are standardized and thus freely available in a similar way. Another opportunity and strength is the modular and extendable structure of electronic mail; it can easily evolve to new requirements.
   1.157 +Opportunities of the market are large data transfers, coming from multimedia content, which becomes popular. If email is used as basis for unified messaging, lots of voice and video mail will need to be transfered. Email is weak related to that kind of data: the data needs to be encoded to \NAME{ASCII} and and stresses mail servers a lot.
   1.158 +
   1.159 +The use of various hardware to access mail is another opportunity of the market. The software and infrastructure needed to transfer mail within this network might be a weakness of the email system. %fixme: think about that
   1.160 +
   1.161 +An opportunity of the market and at the same time a strength of electronic mail is its standardization. Few other communication technologies are standardized and thus freely available in a similar way. %fixme: ref
   1.162 +Another opportunity and strength is the modular and extendable structure of electronic mail; it can easily evolve to new requirements. %fixme: ref
   1.163  
   1.164  The increasing integration of communication channels, is an opportunity for the market. But deciding weather it is a weakness or strength of email is not so easy. It is a weakness because the not possible integration of stream data and the not good integration of large binary data. It is also a strength, because arbitary asynchron communication data already can be integrated. On the other hand, the integration might be a threat too, because it easily leads to complexity of software. Complex software is more error prone and thus less reliable. This could be a strength of electronic mail because of its modular design that decreases complexity, but real integration is harder to do than in monolitic systems.
   1.165  
   1.166 @@ -236,7 +236,9 @@
   1.167  
   1.168  
   1.169  \subsubsection*{Provider independence}
   1.170 -Today's email structure is heavily dependent on email providers. This means, most people have email addresses from some provider. These can be the provider of their online connection (e.g.\ \NAME{AOL}, \name{T\~Online}), freemail provider (e.g.\ \NAME{GMX}, \name{Yahoo}, \name{Hotmail}) or provider that offer enhanced mail services that one needs to pay for. Outgoing mail is send either with the webmail client of the provider or using \name{mail user agent}s sending it to the provider for relay. Incoming mail is read with the webmail client or retrieved from the provider via \NAME{POP3} or \NAME{IMAP} to the local computer to be read in the \name{mail user agent}. This means all mail sending and receiving work is done by the provider.
   1.171 +Today's email structure is heavily dependent on email providers. This means, most people have email addresses from some provider. These can be the provider of their online connection (e.g.\ \NAME{AOL}, \name{T\~Online}),
   1.172 +%fixme: check for non-breakable dash
   1.173 +freemail provider (e.g.\ \NAME{GMX}, \name{Yahoo}, \name{Hotmail}) or provider that offer enhanced mail services that one needs to pay for. Outgoing mail is send either with the webmail client of the provider or using \name{mail user agent}s sending it to the provider for relay. Incoming mail is read with the webmail client or retrieved from the provider via \NAME{POP3} or \NAME{IMAP} to the local computer to be read in the \name{mail user agent}. This means all mail sending and receiving work is done by the provider.
   1.174  
   1.175  The reason therefor is originated in the time when people used dial-up connections to the internet. A mail server needs to be online to receive email. Sending mail is no problem, but receiving it is hardly possible with an \MTA\ being few time online. Internet service providers had servers running all day long connected to the internet. So they offered email service.
   1.176  
   1.177 @@ -268,6 +270,14 @@
   1.178  
   1.179  
   1.180  
   1.181 +\subsection{Future-safety of email}
   1.182 +It seems as if electronic mail or a similar technology has good chances to survive the next decades. This bases on the assumption that it always will be important to send information messages. These can be notes from other people, or notifications from systems (like a broken or full hard drive in the home server, or the coffee machine ran out of coffee beans). Other communication technologies are not as suitable for this kind of messages, as email, short message service, voice mail, and the like. Telephone talks are more focused on dialog and normally interrupt people. These kind of messages should not interrupt people, unless urgent, and they do not need two-way information exchange. The second argument appies to instant messaging too. If only one message is to be send, one does not need instant messaging. Thus, one type of one-way message sending technology will survive.
   1.183 +
   1.184 +Whether email will be the one surviving, or short message service, or another one, does not matter. Probably it will be \name{unified messaging}, which includes all of the other ones in it, anyway. \MTA{}s are a kind of software needed for all of these messaging methods---programs that transfer and receive messages.
   1.185 +
   1.186 +
   1.187 +
   1.188 +
   1.189  
   1.190  \section{What will be important}
   1.191  Now that it is explained why email will survive (in some changed but related form), it is time to think about the properties required for \mta{}s in the next years. Because as the fields and kinds of usage change, the requirement change too.